Merge branch 'master' of github.com:fivethirtyeight/private-data

Author: dmil

Diff for: election-forecasts-2020/README.md

@@ -2,6 +2,8 @@
 files:
  - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_national_toplines_2020.csv
  - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_state_toplines_2020.csv
+ - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/senate_national_toplines_2020.csv
+ - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/senate_state_toplines_2020.csv
  - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_ev_probabilities_2020.csv
  - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_scenario_analysis_2020.csv
  - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/economic_index.csv
@@ -94,3 +96,39 @@ Column | Description
 `projected_zscore` | Number of standard deviations from the previous 2-year average for the projected value of the indicator on Election Day
 `projected_hi` | Upper bound of an 80% confidence interval for `projected_zscore`
 `projected_lo` | Lower bound of an 80% confidence interval for `projected_zscore`
+
+
+## Senate files
+
+`senate_national_toplines_2020.csv` contains the final national Senate topline on each day. This sheet contains the following additional columns:
+Column | Description
+-------|------------
+`branch` | Kind of race this forecast pertains to (senate)
+`expression` | Model type (lite, classic, or deluxe)
+`forecastdate` | Date the model was run
+`chamber_Dparty`, `chamber_Rparty` | Chance that each party (D or R) win control of the Senate
+`mean_seats_Dparty`, `mean_seats_Rparty` | Average forecasted number of seats that each party (D or R) hold in the Senate
+`median_seats_Dparty`, `median_seats_Rparty` | Median forecasted number of seats that each party (D or R) hold in the Senate
+`p90_seats_Dparty`,`p90_seats_Rparty`,`p10_seats_Dparty`,`p10_seats_Rparty` | 90th and 10th percentile for the number of seats for each party (D or R)
+`total_national_turnout`, `p90_total_national_turnout`, `p10_total_national_turnout` | Average, 90th percentile, and 10th percentile of national turnout in states with Senate races
+`popvote_margin`, `p90_popvote_margin`, `p10_popvote_margin` | Average, 90th percentile, and 10th percentile of popular vote margin (with positive being more Democratic and negative more Republican) in Senate races
+
+
+`senate_state_toplines_2020.csv` contains the final state-level Senate toplines on each day. This sheet contains the following additional columns:
+Column | Description
+-------|------------
+`seat` | Senate seat corresponding to this row, in the format XX-S#, where XX is the state postal code and # is the class of the seat being contested
+`name_D1`, `name_D2`,`name_D3`,`name_D4`,`name_R1`, `name_R2`,`name_R3`,`name_R4` | Name of the top four Democrats (D) and Republicans (R) in contention for the seat. Blanks indicate that there are no Democrats or Republicans other than those listed in contention for the seat.
+`name_I1` | Name of the top candidate on the ballot that is neither a Democrat nor a Republican.
+`name_O1` | Placeholder for model chances for all candidates other than those named in the previous columns.
+`winner_XX`, where `XX` is one of `D1`,`D2`,`D3`,`D4`,`R1`,`R2`,`R3`,`R4`,`I1`,`O1` | Chance that the correspondingly named candidate wins the seat
+`winner_Dparty`, `winner_Rparty` | Chance that the corresponding party, regardless of candidate, wins the seat
+`tipping` | Chance that this seat is the tipping point for control of the Senate
+`vpi` | Voter power index: the relative likelihood that an individual vote in the state will determine control of the Senate chamber
+`mean_predicted_turnout`, `p90_simmed_turnout_gross`,`p10_simmed_turnout_gross` | Average, 90th percentile, and 10th percentile of state turnout in this Senate race
+`voteshare_mean_XX`, where `XX` is one of `D1`,`D2`,`D3`,`D4`,`R1`,`R2`,`R3`,`R4`,`I1`,`O1` | Average voteshare for the correspondingly named candidate
+`p90_voteshare_simmed_XX`, `p10_voteshare_simmed_XX`, where `XX` is one of `D1`,`D2`,`D3`,`D4`,`R1`,`R2`,`R3`,`R4`,`I1`,`O1` | 90th and 10th percentile for voteshare for the correspondingly named candidate
+`pvi_538` | Partisan voter index for the state, as calculated by 538
+`vep` | Total voting eligible population in the state
+`mean_netpartymargin`, `p90_netpartymargin`, `p10_netpartymargin` | Mean, 90th, and 10th percentiles of the margin between Democrats and Republicans, where positive numbers are more Democratic and negative numbers are more Republican
+`won_runoff_XX`, `lost_runoff_XX`, where `XX` is one of `D1`,`D2`,`D3`,`D4`,`R1`,`R2`,`R3`,`R4`,`I1`,`O1` | Where applicable, chance the the correspondingly named candidate wins in a runoff for the seat